Anyone who has been paying attention to European politics might detect a certain soupçon of nervousness amongst the EU establishment regarding the EU elections this week. It seems that beastly nationalists and non EU-lovers are likely to win big in many countries. We have President Macron begging people not to vote for “nationalists”:

“We have a crisis of the European Union. This is a matter of fact. Everywhere in Europe … all the extremes, extreme-rights, are increasing,” Macron said Thursday, making an unexpected appeal for European unity on the sidelines of a technology trade show. “On currency, on digital, on climate action, we need more Europe,” he said. “I want the EU to be more protective of our borders regarding migration, terrorism and so on, but I think if you fragment Europe, there is no chance you have a stronger Europe.”

And he’s also busy blaming Steve Bannon and the Russians for his upcoming election defeat – how 2016! Other people are concerned that 2016’s “Fake News” has evolved:

There is, though, a constant buzz of false information that mainly seeks to erode the EU’s image and that has ground on since the last Europe-wide elections in 2014.

“Previous, it was broadly about Russia, fakery and looking for bots. Now what we see is the transnational Far Right deploying that digital toolkit, less fake news, more hate-speech, and a more complex set of tactics to amplify populist narratives,” said Sasha Havlicek, CEO of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based left leaning think tank. “That isn’t to say that is there is no Russian activity but that it’s harder to identify definitively.”

The trend now is for populist and far right groups in Europe to “manipulate information” through more nuanced messages, to promote anti-migration, anti-gay and climate denial themes. This “narrative warfare” is much harder for governments and tech companies to react to, she said. Adding to the confusion, some world leaders have themselves been guilty of spreading false or misleading information on social media.

The lady seems to not quite get why this “nuanced” approach works – the fact that the MSM has proven itself to be biased and utterly untrustworthy. If we could trust the MSM to not shade the truth then this kind of nuance wouldn’t be so successful because people would look at what their preferred media outlet said. The problem is (and this quote itself demonstrates it) the MSM and the establishment deliberately conflate different things to smear the least bad with the worst. Climate denial is a whole different thing to anti-migration and both are totally different to anti-gay. Moreover all three cover a broad spectrum of opinion from disagreement with parts of the current orthodoxy to bug-eyed conspiracy theory. The fact that journalists spend no time at all distinguishing between these shades of difference is a major reason why people don’t trust them any more.

The top Federast (© Tim Worstall), Jean-Claude Druncker is also worried, though of course he goes for the insult because he knows that’s how to convince people they are wrong:

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has lashed out at “stupid nationalists” on the eve of European elections in which euroskeptic politicians are expected to make gains in the European Parliament.

In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, the outgoing president said he was only too aware of the threat that nationalist politicians pose to European solidarity, which Juncker called the “main objective of the EU.”

Some polls project that populists may become the most powerful group in the parliament following this week’s elections in all 28 EU nations, resulting in a lasting impact on the future of the bloc and the continent at large. “These populist, nationalists, stupid nationalists, they are in love with their own countries,” Juncker told CNN in his Brussels office.

Mr Druncker also gets that people love not being given a choice and being told to do what is good for them:

Juncker said he saw a glimmer of hope in what has happened since the Britain’s decision to leave the EU, back in 2016. “Since Brexit … the number of those in favor of the European Union is increasing because people are watching what is happening and they are seeing that leaving the European Union is not as easy as they were told.”

I mean really, I thought politicians had a human touch, apparently that’s not required in the top ranks of the EU where you can ignore the plebs because they aren’t your electorate.

And of course in the UK the main parties are panicking with good reason over the likely domination of Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party. I blogged recently that I thought the Brexit party would get more than 50% of the votes and seats and I see nothing recently to change that opinion. In fact people notice that his party is being reported to the electoral commission for “offences” that every other party also did (and which were also, um, known as obeying the law as written) and that establishment people seem OK with him being covered with milkshakes (or worse) when normally the same people talk about how this sort of thing is unacceptable.

The Brexit party is likely to kill both the Conservative and the Labour party because a significant fraction (that looks like it is more than 50%) of the members and voters of both are sick and tired of being talked down to, laughed at and then taken for granted at the polls. Plus even the least politically aware person who pays almost no attention to the news at all is aware that the, entirely contrary to predictions from the “experts”, the UK economy is thriving (the economies of other major EU members not so much). Hence the Brexit party is going to win the general election in the Autumn on the basic manifesto I mentioned last time:

  1. Leave EU
  2. Pass a budget allocating the funds once paid to the EU to something else
  3. Call for new election once EU has been left

In doing so he’ll also do a number on the EUrocrats and federasts because the Farage Brexit is going to be a No Deal Brexit unless the Eurocrats cave quickly. And you can be pretty sure (see comment above from Druncker) that they’ll dig in and seek to punish rather than negotiate so that won’t happen. The Establishment is probably right to fear Farage, and right to warn about the chaos he will engender. But what they don’t understand is that the non-Establishment sorts don’t care about the cushy jobs and pensions that the Establishment sorts have because they don’t have them.

Leaving the EU will probably end up having taken 4 years and having destroyed the political parties that had a century or more of political dominance but it’ll be worth it. And the REEEEEEEE from the Federasts and their allies will be just icing on the cake…