So the turkeys did, finally, vote for Christmas. They had to stick it to Boris and not vote in a large enough number for HIS original bill, but the did then vote to dissolve parliament and hold a general election on the date which he wanted. Boris will take that as a win.

Of course large chunks of the remoaner lot are now mocking Boris for not delivering Brexit on October 31. Which is interesting because it is obvious that the only reason he didn’t deliver a Brexit (with deal) was that the Remoaner parts of parliament couldn’t bear to vote for it. They therefore give the Tories a really simple election manifesto: “Give Us a Big Enough Majority to Get Brexit Done”

Of course it’s a tad more complicated than that because there are two pro-Brexit parties: the Tories and the Brexit party. The latter are going to have to think hard on what they really want. The sums look pretty good that an alliance (even a vaguely unofficial one) would deliver a pretty healthy pro-Brexit majority on the current deal. Assuming the Brexit party is willing to accept the current deal as the best of a bad lot and support leaving. Farage has been very dismissive of it so that’s not a given. It does however give us two simple scenarios for how things will play out on Dec 12 and afterwards

Scenario 1 Brexit/Tory Alliance

If the Brexit party allies with the Tories (at some level) I strongly suspect we’ll see a thumping victory for the alliance. They’ll take most of England and Wales outside London and may get a handful of seats in Scotland. This leads to mass demonization a la Trump for Boris and his ignorant voters, which isn’t good but it’s not going to be MUCH worse than we’ve seen over the last few years. The real question is what other policies do the parties agree on and will the Brexit party need to be part of a ruling coalition or will the Tories be able to govern on their own. There’s a lot of uncertainty here, not least because the Boris Tories seem to be throwing out any modicum of fiscal sanity in order to not be tarred as “uncaring Tory scum” by the commies in the Labour party, but one assumes that a number of their spending promises would fall by the wayside. Furthermore the Brexit party is a strange mix of old-fashioned socialists and Thatcherites and it is unclear to me which group is really in ascendance. Farage talks a much better free market game than the Tories do for now, but some of his more eloquent fellow Brexit party members, such as Claire Fox, are from the absolute opposite end of the standard political spectrum. Ms Fox was once a member of the Revolutionary Communist Party and she’s far from alone in coming to the Brexit party from a far left background. I suspect what we will end up with is some kind of statist muddle. That’s not perfect but it’s what has governed the UK more or less for the last 20 years and assuming (as is entirely likely) the statist muddle does things to provide incentives for businesses to do things outside London and the South East that may not be totally bad.

The key of course will be the new parliament passing the required bill to leave per the Boris agreement and then, one year later having a proper deal agreed with the EU so that we actually leave. I think that’s doable and I think that the concentration on that means that lots of the rest of the manifesto will tend to be ignored because if Boris (and Nigel) do not deliver the Brexit they promised to they are sunk.

Scenario 2 No Brexit/Tory Alliance

If there isn’t an alliance (not even an unofficial one) then things get a lot dicier. The chances are that the Brexit party end up with no seats and the Tories end up with something like the number they have now, possibly fewer. This will probably leave them as the largest single party because it seems unlikely that the Labour party can get more seats. But in the case where no single party has a majority, the onus will be on the Lib Dems, Labour and the SNP to try and form some kind of coalition. (I doubt the Tories can get the Lib Dems into a coalition again, and given the Lib Dems are solidly remainer I can’t see any coalition there actually being functional because it is pretty clear that the surviving Tory party will be strongly leave). The Anti-Tory coalition is not going to be able to agree on anything much (except being ‘Anti-Tory’ and begging the EU to please let us stay in longer) so government policy is going to be a mess. With luck the saner parts of the coalition would be able to stop the loonier bits (e.g. J Corbyn) from totally trashing the City of London and the British economy as a whole, although their mad Europhilia seems likely to just kill it more slowly. It is possible that the Labour party would manage to have enough votes if it avoided the Lib dems and just allied with the SNP and (very controversially) Sinn Fein. This would be a disaster for the United Kingdom because such a coalition would almost certainly see Scotland becoming its own separate (pseudo-independent) EU satrapy and quite possibly see Northern Ireland dumped on the Republic. Or at least make it look enough like that was going to happen that the Unionists would take up arms to stop it and therefore trash the Good Friday Agreement and the last 20 years or more of progress in Northern Ireland.

And that’s just the good part. Because it assumes that the Leave voting parts of England and Wales remain mostly peaceable. I’m not positive that this will remain the case. At least not after the economy tanks which it seems almost certainly to do if Corbyn ends up as PM with no grown-up to restrain him. I’ll be honest, in the event of a hung parliament we want the Lib Dems in government with Labour because without them to moderate the moronity the country might as well just emigrate to Venezuela. With Lib Dems in the coalition, we just get to be Italy only without the wine and the weather.

So that’s a problem.

On the whole the UK’s guardian angel seems to do a fairly good job of not letting the country shoot itself in the foot so with luck that means we have Scenario 1. And since both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are smart people, and (as best I can tell) actually in it to do good not just for ego, if the opinion polls in early December show a remainer win if they have no alliance (which they almost certainly will) then perhaps that will allow the two to form a last minute alliance that stops Scenario 2 from occurring. At least I fervently pray that happens.