As you may be aware if you pay attention to the news (also depending on your source of news), Iran is experiencing widespread protests again. There are some superficial parallels with the protests of 2009 but in various ways this looks to be far more dangerous to the regime.

One of the more insightful bits of analysis on what we’re seeing comes from SF author John Ringo on the Book of Faeces. He notes some key differences between this unrest and the previous lot in 2009. Specifically he points out that the people protesting now are the Iranian “deplorable” working classes and peasants rather than the “liberal” middle classes (although it seems like the latter are now joining in too).

This is important because the blue collar working classes/peasants are the bedrock that supports the regime. It is worth noting that rich people riot about “rights” and “freedom”. Poor people riot about a lack of affordable food, fuel (it is winter now and Iran’s climate includes significant higher altitudes with snow) and the like. There’s a possible parallel with Romania where the Ceausescu’s lost power when they were unable to keep the miners and their families in something like comfort. Critically every member of the securitate (this also applies to the Iranian equivalent) had parents, siblings and so on, and from what I hear a large part of the dramatic collapse was caused by pretty much every member of the securitate getting an earful from their mothers about how things were so bad this winter. Hence, when protests got serious the people who would actually have had to pull the triggers to stop it didn’t. [This, by the way, was something the Romanian successor regime did not forget, thus they could easily get trainloads of miners to show up and break heads when idealistic students protested the lack of actual democracy/freedom in that successor regime.]

It looks to me like something similar has happened in Iran. A combination of fracking elsewhere and economic mismanagement at home has led to an economy that isn’ quite at the level of Venezuela but looks like it might be sliding that way. In the Iranian situation this has been exacerbated by the fact that Obama lifted sanctions and bunged nearly two billion dollars at the regime (much of it in unmarked bills). The Mullahcracy spent most of that on foreign adventures in Syria and on their Hezbollah buddies in Lebanon and that may have been a big mistake since they also bragged about getting all that moolah from the great Satan. As Mr Ringo pointed out:

Then, instead of doing good works in the country with it, what with the price of oil down and all, and teachers not getting paid and schools and hospitals getting their budgets cut, the mullahs, who were supposed to be all-in for the working poor, instead gave it all to some Arab goat-herds. (Hezbollah) (The phrase Persians use for Arabs does not translate as ‘goat herders’. That’s being polite. The second word would be better translated as starting with an ‘f’ and indicating copulation. They really do not like Arabs, Arab culture or anything smacking of it. In that they take much the same tack as the majority of the USMC. So, there’s common ground there.)

The Mullahs forgot who their base was (shades of the Mainstream Republican Party and the Never Trumpers) and decided they were going to create a regional hegemony with all the money we flew to them in the middle of the night. (They’ve also disdained Khomeini’s Spartan lifestyle for a very lavish one. And people have noticed.)

Now, assuming that these protests end up causing regime change (which is not yet a fact), what this means is that a major reason for the mullahs being overthrown is that things did not get better when Obama sucked up to them. In other words if the mullahs are tossed out the reason is that Obama gave them money which they then squandered abroad while their own people were suffering. Moreover the economy is still hurting and they can’t blame the UN,USA et.c for that since sanctions have been generally lifted. In other words the mullahs can’t blame anyone else anymore and instead have boasted about blowing money abroad instead of using it to alleviate poverty at home.

In which case Obama would appear to have set in motion the regime change which has been the dream of US Presidents since Reagan. Not that he’s going to reap the recognition for that; Trump will, which is a level of irony that is utterly delicious.