In the UK there was Brexit, in the US there was Trump’s election. Both these events were a big shock the establishments in their respective nations (and in the case of Brexit to the neighboring EU as well). Since they perceived these events as a threat, people in both establishments sought to strike back and nullify the result one way or another.

In the US, the result of this was the “collusion” story and the Mueller investigation. In the UK the result has been the numerous attempts to not actually Brexit but pretend to. Both of these attempts to strike back, are, in essence attempted coups d’etat against the electorate and democracy.

The unravelling of Mueller etc. suggests to me that that coup has failed. In fact, because of who Trump is, it seems likely that it will in fact rebound unpleasantly on some of its perpetrators.

When asked specifically if former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan, and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice should be called to testify about their role in the matter—and be subpoenaed to force their testimony if they refuse to voluntarily comply—Paul said: “Absolutely.”

“We have John Brennan, who lied to us, who spied on the Senate and tapped into Senate computers,” Paul said. “We have James Clapper who came before the Intelligence Committee and said they weren’t collecting all of our phone data. So both Brennan and Clapper have been known to lie in official testimony. They should be brought forward and asked what was their part? What was their role in ginning up this dossier? Amazingly, most media outlets wouldn’t even print the dossier because they thought it was so unsubstantiated. And then all of a sudden, the FBI gives it credence. There’s one interesting story out today that says still no one would print it, so then Comey gives it to President Trump and that’s when it’s been leaked and then we have a news story saying that this dossier had been given to the president and that became the hook or the story.”

On the whole I’m fine with that, but I am concerned because one of reasons why elections are a good thing is that they provide a mechanism for peaceful transitions without the losers being shot or put in jail. The fact that the losers in this election appear to have attempted to undermine the winners is an extremely bad precedent because it leads to the winners deciding to take it out on the losers next time around and that in turn leads to people not relinquishing power short of being turfed out with violence – see Venezuela and any number of Latin American, Central Asian and African dictatorships.

In fact allowing the losers to come up with one way after another to try and delegitimise an election they lost is bad on its own because the ability to “throw the bums out” is a key feature of democracy. If voters can’t trust that their votes will be respected they are likely to resort to other methods of expressing their displeasure with the current set of rulers and that is something that these rulers may come to regret. The good news is that the New AG seems to be doing his job and turning over any number of stones that various parties would have preferred remained unexamined.

It is unclear to me how many of the plotters will end up in the poor house or jail – sadly I suspect most will skate – which means that the distrust of government which fired up the Tea Party and the Trump campaign is not going to dissipate. So far, and so long as some perp walks occur fairly soon, that distrust has not mutated into violence but it could. The wrong person (Comey say) pulling a “don’t you know who I am?” schtick to the wrong crowd could be just the right spark that leads to a broad selection of new lamp post decorations drawn from the senior ranks of the administrative state, congress and the media. I am quite sure that a lot of Trump/Tea Party sorts would not spend a lot of time mourning these lot being shuffled off this mortal coil somewhat prematurely, and that is, in itself, a major cause for alarm. The “deplorables”, the “bitter, gun and religion clinging” hicks from the sticks, can see how they are being ignored and generally taken for granted (when not being actively insulted) and there’s a limit to how far they can be pushed. I think (fear) we are a lot closer to that limit than most people in Washington DC believe.

In that regard we should turn our attention to the other attempt to override the clearly expressed opinion of the electorate – Brexit. The Brexit referendum was closer than I would have preferred, but it was the highest turnout for a national vote that the UK had seen in decades and the leave side won by a clear and significant margin. Not only that, in the subsequent general election, politicians of many parties and stripes pledged to implement the will of the people as expressed in said referendum and have the UK leave the EU. As we all know, this seemed to be chugging along somewhat unwillingly but in a generally kinda, sorta, it’s going to happen way until we got really close to the March deadline for when it was supposed to happen. At which point it became clear that the forces of inaction were legion inside parliament and the civil service and they were going to make damn sure that Brexit – at least Brexit as understood by the average bloke or blokess in the street – was not going to happen. The establishment all seemed rather chuffed about it too.

I don’t think they still quite get it, despite the opinion polls showing the strength of the Brexit party’s support. They’ve managed to cause a majority of the electorate to believe that their votes don’t count and I think the level of fury that this has engendered has not been recognized. Partly this is denial and the SW1 bubble but is it also in large part because the MSM parts of the establishment – the BBC, the Grauniad, the FT and to a degree the more right wing papers too – have simply not reported on the anger. The Speccie has a nice article about the secret Brexiteer and I have absolutely no doubt what so ever that it describes a very real effect. The Speccie (well worth the money for a subscription) has a bunch of Brexit related articles that are doing their best to warn, such as this one:

The Brexit Party launched only a few weeks ago but already this is looking like a movement which could have a profound effect on Britain’s politics. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Betty Mitchell, 85, “it’s people power.” Hearing the cheers and chanting and seeing the repeated standing ovations of the crowd, it’s evident that the setbacks plaguing the UK’s abortive attempt to leave the EU, far from dampening the spirit of leave voters, has turbo charged it. …

Many had come to support “democracy”. “We feel so betrayed”, said Mary Fletcher, from Perton, Staffordshire, “I’ve never known a worse PM than this one”. Asked what she thought about calls for a second referendum, she told me: “It’s like a football match, and the losers didn’t like the result, so they’re saying let’s do it again because the winners didn’t know what they were doing.”

The Brexit party is a one item party, and an expression of the unhappiness felt at the Brexit referendum result being sabotaged by the establishment. In the EU elections it seems pretty clear to everyone that the Brexit party will receive a plurality of votes – this twitter bloke has them on 30 seats out of the total of 73 based on the various opinion polls.

I strongly suspect he’s being pessimistic due to the aforementioned secret brexiteer effect. It will not surprise me in the slightest if the Brexit party gets comfortably over 50% of the votes and over 50% of the seats (as we have just seen in Australia people now routinely lie or don’t answer opinion pollsters when they feel like the establishment hates them). Despite what the BBC suggests in a couple of “balanced” articles, my guess is that just about every leave voter in the referendum who votes in the EU elections is going to vote for the Brexit party and that, now that there is a reason to vote in them and a cause, they are going to turn out for these elections in numbers that they haven’t for most EU elections. It is unclear to me whether the remain side are going to turn out in such numbers but my guess is that they will be less motivated because (see MSM quietness) they haven’t truly grasped the fury of the leave voters. Hence my guess is we see the Brexit party get another few seats beyond those counted in this poll. I would not be surprised if they pick up a NI seat and one more seat in every English region than on the map above, which would put them on 40 out of 73 seats and about 55% of the vote.

This is going to make a lot of UK establishment types just as scared as the American ones are now that AG Barr is doing things and with good reason. You can tell by how they are already spreading FUD about the Brexit party’s sources of funding – complaining about the lack of documentation for small donations which the laws says don’t have to be documented. Needless to say a trivial bit of investigative jornalism by Guido Fawkes showed that other parties accept paypal donations too.

I think it is highly likely that there will be a UK general election in the next few months and in that election the Brexit party is going to win, assuming the Brexit party sticks to a simple two or three point manifesto like:

  1. Leave EU
  2. Pass a budget allocating the funds once paid to the EU to something else
  3. Call for new election once EU has been left

Nigel Farage is not stupid, he’ll have something like that as his manifesto and thus likely be N Farage PM as a result. The most interesting thing is going to be whether his MPs are mostly new, former Tories, or former Labour. My guess is that in an election on these terms he’ll get at least 100 Tories and a lot of ground support from the rank and file memberships of local conservative associations – those people have not forgotten that Cameron & co called them “swivel eyed loons” – which may include local candidates who were passed over in favour of ones being parachuted in from party HQ. Likewise I suspect he’ll get a good 50 Labour MPs who can similarly read the local election polls and jump along with a chunk of their local supporters. The rest, the other 200 or so he’ll need as a majority, will probably be newbies as MPs, though they will likely include councilors from both the Tory and Labour parties as well as the saner end of the UKIP lot.

That is not going to be the only likely fallout. It is quite possible – actually I’d tag it as highly likely – that the Conservative party will collapse as a party after 185 years, just as the original Tories did in the 1830s. In the fallout to their almost certain near annihilation in the EU elections (I suspect they may get just one or two seats, and quite possibly no seats) Theresa May is going to have to resign and there’s going to be a messy leadership contest. Boris Johnson is, without doubt, the leading contender to replace her and the most popular one amongst party members. However the leadership choices are initially selected by Tory MPs and there are a lot of remainers there as well as others that dislike him and/or think he’ll be a terrible leader (they may be right) so MPs may select others. If they don’t choose Boris I think we’ll see mass defections of party members to the Brexit party, quite possibly we’ll see entire local party associations moving and taking their buildings and other assets with them. If they do choose Boris I anticipate a lot of remainers quitting to join some new “centrist” party because they will be unwilling to agree with the “swivel eye loons” on the local constituency parties on how to proceed with Brexit. As the Wapping Liar article I linked to above reports, a lot of rank and file Tories would be happy with a no-deal Brexit, which is something that seems to horrify reamainers:

The poll also shows that the next leader will be under huge pressure to take Britain out of Europe without a deal. The Tory members were asked how the candidates should approach Brexit. Sixty-six per cent called for a no-deal departure as their first option, 13 per cent recommended returning to Brussels to win a deal that could attract remaining Tory and DUP MPs, 12 per cent backed efforts to approve the existing deal and 6 per cent said that the next leader should strike a deal with Labour to get it through the Commons.

The Tory party is not going to be the only casualty. The Labour party seems almost certain to dump its working class roots completely and become, like the Democrats in the USA, a party of the urban middle classes plus various minorities. You can expect the traditional trades unions to get upset at this, and of course Labour has its on-going anti-semitism problem that is almost certain to cause issues as it is very clear that Corbyn and his close allies have never met a terrorist leader they didn’t love, including of course the H-ones from the middle east. Whether we get a more traditional trades union socialist party and the new labour party or some other combination is unclear but I think the strains of Brexit are likely to prove equally fatal to Labour as they are to the Conservatives. Couldn’t happen to a nice bunch of two-faced politicians.

All in all, I’m thinking the UK coup attempt is going to rebound on its instigators in just as good a fashion as the US one